| June 2022 |
Abstract
A benevolent planner chooses optimally whether and how to disclose publicly a private forecast of fundamentals to a large number of informed small agents. These agents interact in economic environments with information frictions, strategic complementarity or substitutability in actions, and a rich set of externalities that are responsible for inefficient fundamental and non-fundamental fluctuations. First, I characterize the optimal policy as a function of the externalities of the economy, the quality of the forecast of the planner, and agents’ prior uncertainty. Next, I discuss and interpret the theoretical results within the context of an application to central bank communication.
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